Kelly Criterion Betting Strategy: How Does It Work?
Imagine you’ve placed $20 on a cricket match in the Indian Premier League. You’ve chosen an over/under and hope to win the game because the 1,7 odds favour your team.
However, the risk of losing your money is still present if the other team manages to score more wickets or runs than you’ve expected. This is where the Kelly Criterion cricket betting strategy can help you secure your bets and profits.
The Kelly Criterion formula is straightforward, and you can apply it to almost any cricket series, championship, or league match.
The Formula in Theory
Here’s how the Kelly Criterion formula is applied:
- R = your decimal odds – 1;
- W = the probability of winning the bet;
- L = the probability of losing the bet (1-W);
- B = a percentage of the bankroll to bet.
B = (RxW – L)/R or Your Bankroll = ((probability of winning the bet x your decimal odds – 1) – the probability of losing) / (probability of losing your bet).
The Formula in Practice
Let’s assume that you’ve chosen DC as a favourite in the match against the Chennai Super Kings, and their pure win odds are 1.97. Furthermore, the Chennai Super Kings still have considerable odds to turn the game in their favour.
However, two teams play the game, and the probability of winning is equally distributed (50%) among them. This means that your Kelly Criterion cricket betting Formula for DC winning the game, in practice would look like this:
((0,50 x 1.97 – 1) / (1.97 – 1) = 0.05
In this case, the Kelly Criterion cricket betting strategy tells you to place 5% of your total bankroll on the specific bet you’ve chosen. So, if your bankroll equals $100, this bet will amount to $5.
Pros and Cons of the Kelly Criterion
Like any other strategy, this one has some advantages and disadvantages for the players. Here are a few of them:
|Securing your cricket bets||Very complicated if placed on multiple bets at once|
|Reducing the chances of losing significant amounts of money||Can lead to certain losses|
|Backing your bets||Calculating the actual chances of each team winning the game can be very hard|
|Long-run profits||The system doesn’t consider the variance of the actual outcomes|
Kelly Criterion In Cricket Betting – Will It Increase My Chances of Winning?
Yes, the Kelly Criterion generally increases the chances of winning cricket bets. You can utilise this system by using and combining different wagers in your ticket. For example, you can place over/under, spreads, top batsman, top bowler, tied match, and much more.
By calculating the size of your bets and the percentage of the bankroll staked, the Kelly Criterion Cricket Betting System reduces your chances of losing. Subsequently, your chances of winning are increased.
To maximise your profits, you’ll have to follow three simple rules:
- Avoid low cricket odds;
- If you are placing parlays, find odds higher than 2.0;
- Place enough money on your bankroll.
Note that this system is designed to increase your winning chances in the long run.
Tips For Novices
Here are our TOP tips on how to choose your cricket betting system:
- Rely on teams and players’ previous statistics;
- Check different coefficients and outcomes;
- Reasonably manage your bankroll;
- Consider the type of championship or series you place your bets on;
- Beware of the match conditions (injuries, player statistics, previous matches’ results, etc.).
Cricket betting strategies help reduce the risk of losing significant amounts. Furthermore, they are used to guarantee that each player will win back the money he placed and reasonably choose the percentage of bankroll to gamble.
They are all centred around low-risk gambling, which can provide you with significant profits in the long run.
On the other hand, the Oscar Grind or the Correct Score betting strategy is much more straightforward in calculating and has a higher risk inherent to the system. Nevertheless, these can be much more profitable than the Kelly Criterion.
The Kelly Criterion is a good option for online cricket betting newbies because of the easy-to-learn rules and the moderate approach. If you want to optimise your bets, this system may give you the best formula.
Furthermore, the Kelly Criterion cricket betting system is a great solution when your wallet is thinner than your love for cricket. The main advantage of the Kelly Criterion bets is that they have lower risk than other staking strategies, and the profits, in the long run, are guaranteed.
Nonetheless, it can become very complicated when placing multiple cricket bets at once, and the Kelly Criterion cricket betting doesn’t consider the variance of the actual outcomes.
This can lead to a series of losses, but if you’ve reasonably calculated the bets, there won’t be any space to go bankrupt.
Why Should I Use a Cricket Betting Strategy?
You should use a cricket betting strategy because it increases your winning chances, maximises your profits, and mitigates the risk of bankruptcy.
Can I Win Money By Using Kelly Criterion Betting Strategy?
Yes, you can win money by using the Kelly Criterion. You’ll have to choose higher odds and parlays above 2.0 to win real money. Note that you increase your bets to a certain level, and afterwards, every increase will result in losses. You can use the Kelly Criterion formula to determine your potential winnings.
Will Kelly Criterion Increase My Chances Of Winning?
Yes, the Kelly Criterion increases the winning chances by optimising the bet size and reducing your risk.
Expert in sports statistics and match prediction.